A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
