Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
